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Explaining the evidence: Causal models in legal reasoning
7 November 2019 @ 16:00 - 17:00
Explaining the evidence: Causal models in legal reasoning
David Lagnado (University College London)
Date: Thursday, 7 November 2019
Time: 16:00-17:00, followed by drinks
Venue: Marie Lokezaal, Harmony Building
Abstract
How do people reason in the face of complex and contradictory information? Legal cases are particularly challenging: people must decide between competing stories, integrating a wide range of evidence from sources with varying degrees of credibility. In my talk I will argue that people have an impressive capacity for causal thinking – generating plausible models to explain the evidence – but are less proficient at evaluating these models. Due to processing limits people use simplifying strategies rather than fully Bayesian computations; these heuristic approaches produce workable models and simulations, but can lead to cognitive biases. I will discuss how formal tools such as Bayesian networks can help improve hypothesis evaluation and avoid the dangers of unbridled story-telling.
About David Lagnado
David Lagnado is a professor of experimental psychology at the University College London. His research focuses on the psychological processes that underlie human learning, reasoning and decision-making. Major themes in his work are causal models in cognition, the generation and evaluation of explanations and the interplay between causal thinking and judgments of responsibility and blame.
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