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Explaining the evidence: Causal models in legal reasoning

7 November 2019 @ 16:00 - 17:00

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Explaining the evidence: Causal models in legal reasoning David Lagnado (University College London) Date: Thursday, 7 November 2019 Time: 16:00-17:00, followed by drinks Venue: Marie Lokezaal, Harmony Building Abstract How do people reason in the face of complex and contradictory information? Legal cases are particularly challenging: people must decide between competing stories, integrating a wide range of evidence from sources with varying degrees of credibility. In my talk I will argue that people have an impressive capacity for causal thinking…
Explaining the evidence: Causal models in legal reasoning David Lagnado (University College London)   Date:    Thursday, 7 November 2019 Time:    16:00-17:00, followed by drinks Venue:  Marie Lokezaal, Harmony Building Abstract How do people reason in the face of complex and contradictory information? Legal cases are particularly challenging: people must decide between competing stories, integrating a wide range of evidence from sources with varying degrees of credibility. In my talk I will argue that people have an impressive capacity for causal thinking - generating plausible models to explain the evidence - but are less proficient at evaluating these models. Due to processing limits people use simplifying strategies rather than fully Bayesian computations; these heuristic approaches produce workable models and simulations, but can lead to cognitive biases. I will discuss how formal tools such as Bayesian networks can help improve hypothesis evaluation and avoid the dangers of unbridled story-telling. About David Lagnado David Lagnado is a professor of experimental psychology at the University College London. His research focuses on the psychological processes that underlie human learning, reasoning and decision-making. Major themes in his work are causal models in cognition, the generation and evaluation of explanations and the interplay between causal thinking and judgments of responsibility and blame.

Details

Date:
7 November 2019
Time:
16:00 - 17:00

Venue

Faculty of Arts, University of Groningen,, Harmony building (Harmoniegebouw), Marie Lokezaal.
Harmony building (Harmoniegebouw), Marie Lokezaal.
Groningen, Groningen 9712 EK The Netherlands
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Explaining the evidence: Causal models in legal reasoning

David Lagnado (University College London)

 

Date:    Thursday, 7 November 2019

Time:    16:00-17:00, followed by drinks

Venue:  Marie Lokezaal, Harmony Building

Abstract

How do people reason in the face of complex and contradictory information? Legal cases are particularly challenging: people must decide between competing stories, integrating a wide range of evidence from sources with varying degrees of credibility. In my talk I will argue that people have an impressive capacity for causal thinking – generating plausible models to explain the evidence – but are less proficient at evaluating these models. Due to processing limits people use simplifying strategies rather than fully Bayesian computations; these heuristic approaches produce workable models and simulations, but can lead to cognitive biases. I will discuss how formal tools such as Bayesian networks can help improve hypothesis evaluation and avoid the dangers of unbridled story-telling.

About David Lagnado

David Lagnado is a professor of experimental psychology at the University College London. His research focuses on the psychological processes that underlie human learning, reasoning and decision-making. Major themes in his work are causal models in cognition, the generation and evaluation of explanations and the interplay between causal thinking and judgments of responsibility and blame.

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The OZSW event calendar lists academic philosophy events organized by/at Dutch universities, and is offered by the OZSW as a service to the research community. Please check the event in question – through their website or organizer – to find out if you could participate and whether registration is required. Obviously we carry no responsibility for non-OZSW events.